It would makes sense that Negan would take Judith back with him. Probably gets the wives to take care of her.
I don't think he kills Carl. But Carl knows (sorta) where he's located, and Negan said before that it makes no sense to let him go. So he's needs some other kind of leverage to prevent any surprise attacks, and Judith would provide that. Also if he tried to walk out of Alexandria on his own someone surely would take the chance to just kill him right there while isolated from his people. If he's carrying Judith? That's a free ticket as well as leverage.
I think Spencer is the one that meets Lucile, or dies in some fashion. Negan will demand a sacrifice from them for Carl's actions and either him or Rick must choose who gets it.
Or it's just an eeny meeny miny moe scenario again... I dunno.
I probably put too much thought into a show that isn't that intelligent or calculated in its plot developments to begin with and relies on shock/gore to keep people's attention.
But I guess it's fun for sunday nights while GOT is on hiatus.
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