Quote:
Game 28 gets the Flames just over a third of the way into the season (it would be an exact third in an 84 game schedule). It also marks a good way to evenly compare the start of the season (first sixth, 14 games) to the recent stretch of play (second sixth, games 15-28).
Team stats from first 1/6:
Points: 25th in the league
GF: 13th
GF/G: 13th
GA: 30th
GA/G: 30th
SF: 12th
SF/G: 12th
SA: 22nd
SA/G: 22nd
PP%: 30th
PK%: 29th
FOW%: 10th
Team stats from second 1/6:
Points: 2nd (+23)
GF: 10th (+3)
GF/G: 10th (+3)
GA: 17th (+13)
GA/G: 15th (+15)
SF: 7th (+5)
SF/G: 7th (+5)
SA: 28th (-6)
SA/G: 28th (-6)
PP%: 15th (+15)
PK%: 12th (+17)
FOW%: 16th (-6)
If these trends continue...
I guess most importantly, coin flip playoff chances right now stand at 44.4%. Weighted stand at 30.4%. The bad start has almost been completely erased. The Flames still have a tough road ahead, needing to establish a playoff position with only 2/3 of the season remaining instead of being in contention from the start. But at least the season isn't a writeoff before Christmas.
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SECOND THIRD OF SEASON UPDATE!
So here's the stat comparisons for games 1-27 (1/3) and then 28-54 (2/3). The third third has 28 games, it's not my fault!
Team stats from first third:
Points: 17th in the league
Pts/G: 17th
GF/G: 23rd
GA/G: 22nd
SF/G: 27th
SA/G: 10th
PP%: 30th
PK%: 28th
FOW%: 13th
Team stats from the second third:
Points: 17th in the league (no change)
Pts/G: 17th (no change)
GF/G: 17th (+6)
GA/G: 11th (+11)
SF/G: 12th (+15)
SA/G: 3rd (+7)
PP%: 1st (
+29!!)
PK%: 10th (+18)
FOW% 20th (-7)
So, it's challenging to draw a lot of conclusions from this, since the Flames finished both segments in 17th. Not a desirable position - right on the playoff bubble. Still, looking at the improvements in the underlying numbers, one has to wonder if continuing the game plan will pay dividends down the stretch.
Every per game category improved, with the exception of faceoff win %. The powerplay went from worst to first. The PK went from a cellar dweller to top 10. SF/G and SA/G improved dramatically, but didn't drag the goals for and against counts up or down by the same amounts. Does this point to luck, bounces, inability to make big plays? Beats me.
Despite being 17th in points and points per game over both segments, the team improved from 1 game below .500 in the first third to two games over .500 in the second third. A similar 3 game improvement down the stretch would give the Flames 33 points in the final 28 games, or 88 points. Which would continue the close but not quite good enough results so far. There is a lot of work for this team to do, they haven't made it easy for themselves.
A couple of other random observations from around the league jumped out at me as I was going through the numbers:
- 13 teams in the first third had GAA of 2.50 or less. In the second third, that number dropped to 6
- Holy crap, Boston averaged over 35 shots per game and had a positive shot per game differential of over 10. And still finished in the bottom third of teams in the segment
- The Capitals demonstrated that shot counts alone don't tell a story. Outshot by 3 total shots in 30 games, they scored almost 2 more goals per game than they allowed (2nd in GF/G, 1st in GA/G) while going 23-4-3
- Man has Colorado fallen off the cliff. No other team got fewer than 20 points in the second segment, the Avs only got 11. Letting up almost 2 more goals per game than they score on average over the period as well. The anti-Capitals
I'll keep the spreadsheet handy on my PC so I can sort and crunch numbers from the first and second third.