I appreciate your post, I do think that he was using his force powers the entire time though. Reason being because when Palpatine would manipulate, coerce and move his chess pieces in plain sight the Jedi were weakened nearly instantly.
His actions had an immediate impact on the force balance in the entire universe, they couldn't detect his powers because he was effectively weakening them. It was hinted at with how the Jedi couldn't detect the existence of the clone army, Obi-Wan and Yoda both recognized their force powers were significantly reduced and that something was wrong. Not a small imbalance but a drastic change that saw the rise of the Sith.
They just couldn't tell where it was coming from because Palpatine was so powerful and effective, he used his powers to manipulate the Jedi into viewing things differently than they actually were. When the council was sitting with Palpatine Obi-Wan could sense something but Palpatines true strength was his ability to misdirect and confuse. Obi-Wan was so attuned that his instincts were trying to help him but Palpatines powers of manipulation were that much more powerful.
Even at the onset of EP 1 Obi-Wan should've recognized there was someone powerful in the senate trying to destroy the Jedi but Palpatine effectively clouded their vision.
Frequently their inability to recognize the obvious was reinforced because of how Palpatine was effecting the universe, his power was so strong it was permeating the events everywhere. It was like he was in every scene, every single move the Sith made weakened the light side of the force and Palpatine was controlling it all the entire time with his powers of manipulation. Every sentence he uttered was a lie and an act of manipulation and these lies had a direct impact on the force where each successful manipulation saw the Jedi weakened so he had to be using the force or it wouldn't be effecting the balance in the universe.
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