[CaptainCrunch]

Last one

So after predicting advantages for Calgary in terms of offense and defense, its time to close up this chapter with a look at special teams and to talk about any intangibles that might effect the game.

Special Teams

Unlike the other areas that I discussed and had a versus flavor, I’m just going to look at special teams. Why? Maybe because I just feel like it, or maybe because I’m just not a special teams analyst.

Special Teams - Calgary

The return game

In terms of Punt returns Calgary finished 4th in the league averaging about 12.7 yards per opportunity while finishing first in the league in terms of kickoff returns with a sparkling 24.3 yard average. Calgary was lead by Roy Finch who showed throughout the season that he was an exceptionally dangerous returner who could give the team a short field advantage. Finch finished second in the league in average punt returns with a 14.0 average while finishing second in kickoff returns with a 24.7 yard average, while he didn’t bust a kickoff for a touchdown in 2016 he did return a punt for a touchdown.

In terms of return coverage, Calgary did struggle with effective punt coverage allowing an average of 13.2 yards and finished middle of the pack by holding the opposition to an average of 20.7 yards on kickoff returns. One thing that’s important to note is that Calgary did block 3 punts this season.

Calgary’s unquestioned leaders on special teams are Love and Thibault who had 21 and 19 special teams respectively,

The kicking game

Calgary has one of the strongest kicking tandems in the CFL, Rene Parades didn’t have the best year of his career with a 87.5% success rate on field gales however inside of the 40 yard line he had a 93% accuracy, DD did show some trust in the field goal kicker as he allowed him to attempt 23 field goals in the 40 to 49 yard range with a 78% success rate and he was 1 for 1 outside of 50 yards.

Rob Maver continues to be an elite directional punter in the CFL and the stats show that in a couple of ways. While his average punt was 46.9 yards on 99 punts his return yards came in at 959 yards for an average of 9.67 yards per return.

Special Teams – Ottawa

Ottawa struggled when they punted the ball this year average a poor 43.2 yard average, while finishing in the middle of the pack with a 64.2 yard average on kickoffs. Meideiros had a 43.7 yard average on 63 punts, while Chris Milo handled the field goal duties and had a low accuracy of 81 yards, however he showed a strong leg by making all 3 attempts over 50 yards.

In terms of coverage duties, Ottawa was stellar on punt return coverage finishing second in the CFL with a stingy 10.5 yard average, kickoff coverage was respectable as well as the finished 5th in the CFL with a 21.4 yard average. In terms of a special teams demon type, Ottawa didn’t have that instead they worked very well by committee, their leading special teams tackler was Offensive Lineban Albright Mathew with 16 tackles.

If football is a game of field position, everything that I’ve listed above should point to Calgary winning the battle of field position. On top of that Calgary just has a better punting and field goal game though Ottawa certainly has an advantage in terms of long field goals. I just can’t help but think that the battle between Finch and Jackson is just a fairly overwhelming advantage to Calgary

Advantage – Calgary

Intangibles

Seriously it’s the Grey Cup, so there isn’t a lot of motivational difference here, both teams want to win this game badly and will run over their mother if she tries to step in to make a tackle. However in my mind there are three major intangibles here.

Mylan Hicks – Sadly Hicks was killed in a shooting earlier this season, but the Stamps rallied around each other and around his family and it seems to be a major motivating factor. From players writing his number on their arms to wearing his jersey to sending game balls to Hick’s mother, this team has rallied around a team tragedy.
Coaching – Frankly this stampeders team is so good because of depth and talent, but more importantly because this coaching staff is completely dialed in and has been since game three of the season when they came from behind to tie the REDBLACKS. Since then this team has been devastatingly good. With a coaching staff that seem to value preparation and scouting and self scouting to the point that every team gets a different look. To the strong ability to adjust on the fly which has lead to this team not only coming out of the gates like an avalanche and putting teams away early to being able to complete late game drives when they need them most.

Coaching – Frankly this stampeders team is so good because of depth and talent, but more importantly because this coaching staff is completely dialed in and has been since game three of the season when they came from behind to tie the REDBLACKS. Since then this team has been devastatingly good. With a coaching staff that seem to value preparation and scouting and self scouting to the point that every team gets a different look. To the strong ability to adjust on the fly which has lead to this team not only coming out of the gates like an avalanche and putting teams away early to being able to complete late game drives when they need them most.

The legitimacy factor – Frankly since about game 10, this team has been told that its one of the best of all times, it’s a major ego stroking, however they’ve also been told about the Edmonton Eskimos 1989 team that had 16 wins and were upset in the Western Finals. This is a great lesson for a team to not let their ego’s get ahead of their results

Advantage – Calgary

So overall I’ve laid out all the facets of the game, and to me I’ve come to the conclusion that Calgary is just a stronger team in all three facets of the game, and they are a stronger team in terms of individual positions and players and depth. That doesn’t mean that Ottawa can’t beat Calgary. We’ve all heard the term “On any given Sunday”, and Ottawa has the ability and talent to be that team. But to do it there are a lot of if’s that have to happen.

Hank has to have a strong game
The Ottawa receivers have to beat the coverage of the best secondary in the league
Ottawa has to limit their mistakes and turnovers, something that haven’t been good at this year.
Ottawa needs to win the field position battle
Ottawa’s offense needs to eat the clock and keep Calgary’s offense on the sidelines.
Ottawa needs to have a better overall gameplan then Calgary.
Ottawa needs to keep the score low or close to lead the way to last drive heroics
To me that’s a long laundry list and if Ottawa can’t live up to any two of these they’re going to lose the game.

On paper and even based on what we’ve seen this year, this is a mismatch of epic proportions, a virtual David versus not only Goliath, but Goliath’s entire family.

I’ll take Calgary to beat the 8.5 point spread. Calgary 37 Ottawa 19

Thanks for reading and enjoy the game