Quote:
Originally Posted by polak
Wouldn't that include a substantial decline for the city? Lots of Calgarians will not be able to find work under those conditions not just in Oil and Gas but the service industries, real estate (especially commercial) and construction will all be in decline.
Surely this city cannot sustain the population that moved here in the last 10 years with what will be left over?
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I think a lot of the affected population has left already so I don't see significant further decline. Companies will be rehiring over the next year slowly as sustaining production is developed. Our demographics are positive (young and child bearing). Commercial real estate and the associated construction jobs will be gone but even in the past year Calgary Metro grew negligibly so residential while slower will still exist.
If the question is will Calgary grow and be more vibrant going forward over the next decade using today as the bench mark the answer in my opinion is absolutely yes.
But if you use 2014 as the bench mark and say when will Calgary recover to that level of disposable income I would say never. Even if its terms of total economic activity we probably have 5 years to build back to that point spread across a lot more people.