If you listen to Nates podcast he refuses to pick a winner saying that his model does not pick winners. Instead gives the probabilities of certain outcomes. Now that's not very satisfying to the people that made Nate the patron saint of modding for being right in 08 and 12 but his state of the race was bang on. Clintons vote distribution is shakey so a few point polling error in Teumps direction will sway the mid west.
This whole the polls were wrong naritive is expecting too much from the polls. The story should be that we had a slightly larger than typical polling error in Trumps direction likely due to flaws in the turnout model amount African Americans. But since people don't understand statistics we can't have nice things
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