Quote:
Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan
So for you election pros, when was the last election surprise like this?
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog...pdate-23234881
From the same livestream:
Even More Recent Polling Misses
Yes, this probably wasn’t a huge polling miss — it looks like Clinton will win the national popular vote by 1 percentage point or so, not the 3 or 4 points she led by. But it’s still a miss, and what looks like a decisive one. Earlier I mentioned some other recent important polling misses worldwide — and readers reminded me of a few I didn’t list. They include the recent Colombia peace referendum, plus general elections in Argentina last year and in Brazil in 2014.
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Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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