Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex
If your definition of a rout is one that fundamentally alters a political party then you'd need more then just flipping a red state. Bill Clinton took multiple red states in his two campaigns, Won the electoral college by more then 200 EV, didn't destroy the Republican Party.
Reason it didn't destroy the Republican Party was because they were voting for Bill Clinton... not the Democratic Party. If H. Clinton is re-elected under any margin that might do it (16 years is a long time to be locked out of the executive). Texas becoming a true swing state would likewise do it (removing 38EV from their anchor states would make it almost impossible to win without major internal changes).
I don't think it's possible to truly destroy the Republican Party... but it is possible to inflict so many losses that they stare into the abyss and are forced to realign themselves.
|
Bill Clinton's win was expected though. 3rd term of republican rule in a recession is an unlikely election to win.
You had the moral majority coming into power in the republican party and after the loss took control of it as the largest coalition. You also didn't have a clear schism between the establishment republicans and the base that you do now. So I think that election was much more they were due to win one. Now they are facing having lost 3 elections decisively with a variety of candidates and demographics getting worse for them each year.
And when I say destroy the republican party I mean a democratic style reorganization and modernizing of social and immigration issues. Or they could go further into white nationalism with anti immigrant anti trade rhetoric but tone down the overt racisim and try to go after the Midwest.