Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
It’s great to build a complex model and load it with empirical data like polls, economic reports and presidential approval ratings. But if the output of that model is implausible, it’s time to go back to the drawing board.
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How exactly do you know the output of the model is implausible though? Even when we know the result of the election, that doesn't mean any one model was right or wrong.
Honestly, I think this election is going to be much closer than a lot of people are giving it credit. I still think Hillary wins, but not in a landslide fashion. The problem is Hillary is going to win and then all the groups that gave her a high chance of winning will point to their model as the best, even though they were being way overconfident.