Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
If you rolled a die once and Trump became president if it was a 5 or a 6, how confident would you feel in that event not occuring?
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I'm not pining for a statistical debate, however, my own understanding is while Trump would have 1/3 chance under your example, and I don't claim its invalid, you can't really compare months of polls to a simple die roll. If you assume he has a 1/3 chance, rolling a die does not account for the actual likelihood.
That being said, if I'm wrong and Trump does become president on a 5 or 6 on a die roll, that terrifies me.
The only prediction I'll make is Trump takes Florida, but loses the electoral vote. Those Floridians, they're nuts.