Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
Surprised to see people awarding states to Trump he has like <20% chance of winning.
|
I think most people are grossly underestimating how likely it is that a 20% chance event occurs. Trump is probably closer to 30% or so right now because the national margin of about 3 points is narrow enough that a few percentage point error could flip a lot of states.
If you rolled a die once and Trump became president if it was a 5 or a 6, how confident would you feel in that event not occuring?
As for predictions:
Swing States
------------------
Florida - R
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - R
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - D
NH - R
Iowa - D
Maine - D
Maine Districts - Split
Nebraska 2nd - R
Senate Seats - No idea so I'll leave this alone
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 46%
Other - 7%