Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Here's a quick projection of the chance of victory by each candidate based on polling data.
NYT : Clinton 84%, Trump 16%
538: Clinton 67%, Trump 33%
Predictwise: Clinton 89%, Trump 11%
Daily Kos: Clinton 87%, Trump 13%
Lott & Stossel: Clinton 82%, Trump 17%
Betfair: Clinton 83%, Trump 17%
HuffPo: Clinton 98%, Trump 2%
Outliers here are 538 and HuffPo. Looks like the concesus is Clinton at 80-85% chance of victory.
Betting sites across Europe have it pretty much unanimously at 80/20, breaking in Clinton's favor.
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Now are betting sites an accurate predictor or are they a reflection of conventional wisdom? And essentially just another aggregator of already available polling data.