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GGG · 11-07-2016, 10:04 AM

That's an interesting question and really depends on the following

- How likely do you think a polling error of 2-3 points is.
- How linked are states. IE does a 2 point polling error in Florida mean a 2 point polling error nationally.
- How effective are things like ground game at producing better results than polling.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...-forecast.html

The upshot site has a great summary of all of the aggregators and modellers forecasts by state.

I think though, that even in a Trump win situation you will see a large initial drop followed by a recovery similar to what happened to the markets around Brexit. So if Trump does win don't sell after the fact as you will be part of a panic sale. If anything if trump wins you should be buying all the way down.

So the odds forcasters range from a 65% chance of Hillary victory to a 99% chance of Hillary victory with the betting markets sitting somewhere at 80%.

11-07-2016, 10:04 AM	#899
GGG Franchise Player Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: California Exp:	That's an interesting question and really depends on the following - How likely do you think a polling error of 2-3 points is. - How linked are states. IE does a 2 point polling error in Florida mean a 2 point polling error nationally. - How effective are things like ground game at producing better results than polling. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...-forecast.html The upshot site has a great summary of all of the aggregators and modellers forecasts by state. I think though, that even in a Trump win situation you will see a large initial drop followed by a recovery similar to what happened to the markets around Brexit. So if Trump does win don't sell after the fact as you will be part of a panic sale. If anything if trump wins you should be buying all the way down. So the odds forcasters range from a 65% chance of Hillary victory to a 99% chance of Hillary victory with the betting markets sitting somewhere at 80%.