Quote:
Originally Posted by Acey
The 538 model a) does not do as well with all these more volatile swings in polls and b) does not and will not account for the massive amount of votes already cast when Clinton's numbers were higher, including the fact that NV is almost surely blue now (a scenario in which Trump's overall chances drop to 9%)
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There is a great article on the Nevada vote on 538 right now.
if the polling error that is reflected in the early voting data is local to Nevada then it only affects 2.6% of cases. If the polling error in Nevada is a sign of Clinton out performing her polls generally then the affect is significant as you have stated above.
This also assumes that people are voting along party lines which some polling shows may not hold as the white working class is going more to Trump than previously though this is much more of an issue in the Midwest then in Nevada where the immigrant vote governs.