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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Nate's model is gonna need some serious adjustments/rework for the next campaign. For instance yesterday all the PPP polls that came out were mostly good for Hillary, and mostly in swing states or a wannabe swing state in Michigan. But based off all those good polls, her numbers overall went down. Why? Because a couple polls in Indiana, Utah, Kansas and Missouri showed Trump well ahead. So polls in states that won't matter even slightly tipped the scales more to Trump than polls in states that will be vital to determining the winner. Plus as we know the Nevada early voting data strongly suggests Hillary is comfortably in front, but that data isn't worked into the model right now. I know it's not 100% accurate, detailed data, but Nate loves reminded people of the trend lines, so he should be able to incorporate some of the early voting data into his model. Overall this election I've found myself using the Upshot and RCP more than 538. Just not a very good cycle for Nate and company, too much click bait as well.
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Lots of folks are disenfranchised with Silver since ESPN bought his site. I know it's his stats but I think he or the folks over there like a horse race. Keeps the clicks up. Apparently he also had the GOP primary wrong.