The race continues to tighten. Clinton has maintained her lead in national polls, but the individual state polls are looking pretty scary right now, with Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada all leaning slightly Republican according to the 538 model. Good news is Clinton is still sitting at a 64% chance overall. But all Trump would have to do is flip a couple of states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and then we'll officially have armageddon (provided Clinton actually loses all of those swing states, which I don't think she will). I still think the Dems will win, but this is shaping up to be a crazy finish.
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Those state polls? Not a lot of good news for Clinton. There’s more data showing a tied race in New Hampshire. And Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to about 3 percentage points in our forecast. Polls in Michigan have also been tightening, with an unusually large number of undecided voters. Polling in New Mexico has been tight enough that we’re now considering it a “state to watch,” although that may reflect an abundance of caution. Clinton’s numbers have held up better in Wisconsin and Virginia, while the data has been very mixed in Colorado.
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At a minimum, however, the map is getting messier for Clinton, changing a firewall of states that once seemed locked in. Nevada, for instance, could fairly easily leapfrog New Hampshire in her pecking order, especially given the early voting statistics there. You also shouldn’t rule out cases where Florida or North Carolina wind up being the tipping-point state as a result of a late decline for Clinton in Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Overall, Clinton’s Electoral College chances are 65 percent in the both the polls-only forecast and polls-plus forecasts, not much changed from yesterday. And she maintains about a 3-percentage-point lead over Trump in our national popular-vote forecast. It’s not clear that things are getting any worse for Clinton, but it’s also not clear that they’re getting better — and we’re at the point where even a 1-point swing in either direction would be a big deal, since a 4-point lead for Clinton would be quite a bit safer than a 2-point one.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...s-not-so-much/