Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Trump basically has to run the table
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The states aren't independant events. The run the table scenario implies false hope that he needs to when, Ohio, then win Florida, then win NC, the win NH, and then win Nevada.
When all he really needs is a polling error of 2-3% nationally. If he wins Nevada and New Hampshire he likely wins the rest of his must win states because they are highly correlated.
A polling error matching 2012 or 2000 in trumps favour puts him in the whitehouse.
That said I think GOTV efforts make a polling error in Clintons favour more likely.