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Originally Posted by GGG
So if in 2008 there were 50 websites predicting election results you'd expect in 2016 to have a few Nate Silvers existing.
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Haha I never thought of it that way, kind of like the example of becoming a investing god with the investing newsletter. Send out a million newsletters, half saying buy the other half saying sell. After the result, send out a half million to the ones you got right, do it again. Do that a few times and you'll have a small number of people that will give you all their money because you're always right!
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
To me the value in any of these aggregates is doing all the leg work to interpret all of the polling out there in a constant methodology to provide a baseline of information around the spin. Also there work on inferring the effect of each state based on the behaviours of surrounding states, demographics and national trends.
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That's a great way to put it.