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GGG · 11-01-2016, 01:01 PM

I think the polls were naturally going to tighten as people get used to whatever trump said and rationalize how they can vote for him. If you look at the 538 odds over time it has 3 distinct Clinton peaks and now heading for the third trough. You could sy these are triggered by events like the convention and the debates and the troughs from trump clinching, the emails, and this tape.

But I see it more as the natural ebb and flow of the undecided. As the prospect of trump gets closer people reconsider if they really want that. As Hillary creeps into landslide people get wary of that.

I'd argue that this race has always been Hillary +4/5 with media naritive driving it one way or another but no real movement actually occurred and what's really happening in the polls is undecided likely voters becoming non voters in disgust.

11-01-2016, 01:01 PM	#4913
GGG Franchise Player Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: California Exp:	I think the polls were naturally going to tighten as people get used to whatever trump said and rationalize how they can vote for him. If you look at the 538 odds over time it has 3 distinct Clinton peaks and now heading for the third trough. You could sy these are triggered by events like the convention and the debates and the troughs from trump clinching, the emails, and this tape. But I see it more as the natural ebb and flow of the undecided. As the prospect of trump gets closer people reconsider if they really want that. As Hillary creeps into landslide people get wary of that. I'd argue that this race has always been Hillary +4/5 with media naritive driving it one way or another but no real movement actually occurred and what's really happening in the polls is undecided likely voters becoming non voters in disgust.