[Senator Clay Davis]

The only time Hillary led in Ohio in the past two months was after the tapes came out, and she only briefly led those polls. Otherwise Trump has led every poll, and the Hillary campaign has more or less stopped spending money/time there. She might win it if there's a big polling error her way, but it's looked like a safe Trump state for a while now. And it's not about methodology for PA, it's about the "hidden Trump support". PA is demographically similar to OH, though PA has larger suburban populations which hurts Trump. But if she under performs Obama with blacks (as she appears to be doing so far in early voting), it'll be a lot closer than people want it to be.

I know people think she's got this, but it's not even close to in the bag. 60/40 is a realistic advantage for her, people assuming 80/20 are probably ignoring that her net favorability is the same as his. These are unquestionably the two most hated candidates in history.