Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
Yeah, I thought we were headed to landslide territory a few weeks ago, but a 25% chance is quite high when you think about it. His odds are roughly the same odds as flipping heads on a coin on two consecutive flips. That is anything but rare.
Since the national data still leans Hillary, I think she'll still win by a comfortable margin, but I think a lot of people are considering this a done deal when all Trump needs is a few percentage points swing to make it a really tight race.
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I think the 25% though overstates his chances somewhat.
Because the large bulk of that chance is counting on a polling error. And we don't really know the possibility of a polling error that well given the small sample size of presidential elections.
So in one universe you have a 50/50 chance of flipping heads and in the other universe you have 95% chance of flipping heads. And you only have a few clues to which universe you are in.
I think that Hillary is more likely to out perform polling then not for a few reasons.
- ground game matters
- Trump consistently underperformed polling in primaries (no shy trump affect)
- Hillary out performed polling outside of Michigan in primaries.
So these items are not baked into the model, the model assumes that a polling error in each direction is just as likely. I would disagree with that assumption.