Quote:
Originally Posted by Acey
I don't even understand why they bother publishing popular vote polls... cause that's not how the election works.
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Because the states especially states near each other in general move together. Each state election is not an independent event so in smaller areas where you lack polling due to cost or difficulty reaching minorities the national poll allows for larger sample sizes especially in minority Groups.
So in states like Ohio and Florida the national poll is likely of little predictive value but in less polled states that are part of the 12-15 states in play this election they offer a lot of value.
Also in a 3+ point race the state polls don't matter. In a 0-2 point race they do. So right now given the race the state polls are not required to predict the outcome of an election today. As it tightens they are.