Trump has a 40% chance of winning, or more to the point he needs some combination that yields 35 electoral college votes. But that obviously isn't that many votes. Ohio is his, there hasn't been a poll showing Hillary in front there for a long time. Polls in Florida have been slightly towards Hillary, but within the margin of error and when you apply the "Florida ######ation scale" it probably means a Trump win there too. So I'm giving him a 40% chance he can get the remaining 35 votes he needs. North Carolina is his biggest problem though, if he could simply hold that we'd be looking at a straight up 50/50 race.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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