This kinda explains why Clinton's at 75% to win despite having a larger lead in the popular vote than Obama won over Romney with, having an 85% chance to win the popular vote. Just because she makes big gains in Texas, enough to shift the popular vote close to a full point, doesn't mean she'll get those EC votes.
Also their model doesn't take into account any ground game advantage.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...re-increasing/