I always think that there has to be a certain threshold reached for a prospect to be able to play in the NHL. A threshold that includes a certain level of skill, physical ability (being strong enough), maturity, etc. If a prospect doesn't hit that threshold, then he is hurt by 'rushing' him into the NHL.
When I look at Tkachuk playing, I think: "He is NHL-ready."
I don't think another year of junior will really make him get ready. For the argument of being 'the man' on his team - I also agree with some posters that stated he very much was 'the man' on the Knights, especially through the Memorial Cup run which is when 'the man' needs to step-up the most.
He is also a fairly unique kind of prospect. Monahan, Gaudreau, even Bennett - I would have been extremely upset if they were asked to skate on the 4th line. Tkachuk? He is the type of player that can skate on any line. Of course you don't want him on the 4th for a long time - especially most of the season - but the argument is that he can very well continue his development and be placed on the 4th line at times.
On the other hand, will junior hurt him? The danger is that he just doesn't take it seriously, and feels the Flame were not fair to him.
The one thing I care about now is expansion. Yes, he won't factor into expansion at all - in fact, keeping him on the Flames perhaps helps to shield another player that may otherwise be given the opportunity to shine and be selected. Moot point at best.
What isn't a moot point is that there will probably be another expansion on the horizon. 2 years? 3? 4? Delaying the start of his pro career will push him out of the availability window, and allow the Flames to use a protection spot on someone else. This year, I am really not worried about losing anyone - Jokipakka, Shinkaruk, Poirier, etc. It will suck no matter what, but that is what happens.
Next expansion, you will have some of the prospects more developed. What happens if Jankowski is on the team and doing really well? Kylington? Andersson? Mangiapane continues to impress and forces himself into the lineup?
Flames are probably going to lose a pretty good player down the road. That is going to suck. They will lose one no matter what happens, but every spot you can save helps.
It may not be a good enough reason to save a year on Tkachuk, but there is a definite benefit. Doing so after he plays 10 games even derives increased benefit, as I would bet his 2nd contract would be smaller.
However, what do I think is best for Tkachuk? I think he has passed the threshold where development could be impaired by staying in the NHL. He is NHL-ready. The more I see him play, the more confident I feel. I think he is more NHL-ready than Shinkaruk, and probably anyone else that the Flames have on the farm. I think his development would best be served and probably be accelerated if he played in the NHL this year. If you are looking at what is best for Tkachuk only, I think that keeping him in the NHL is in Tkachuk's best interests.
|