Could also be outliers for both polls. 538 also mentioned herding as a late cycle phenomenon where polls that are viewed as outliers are sometimes not even released to the public, artificially selecting polls that narrow the race.
The email news could shave 1 or 2 % off of Clinton's lead. Trump's been going up as all the news falls away and people revert to their partisan defaults. Johnson's been going down but will he go much lower than the 5% he's at now. How much of a difference will get-out-the-vote efforts make (of which Trump is far behind), could that basically offset any loss due to the email news? Trump's running out of money could also impact his end game. Is there one more big negative story out there against Trump?
Ugh.
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Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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