Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
I've seen quite a few negative polls for Trump this morning, and yet he continues to tick upwards in the 538 forecast, which is odd. He's now at 19% in polls plus, up 2 percentage points from yesterday, possibly due to Florida and Nevada being fairly tight at the moment.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus |
Photon posted this link a few pages back, but it's a really good summary about why 538 gives Trump much better chances than other forecasters.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...hers-on-trump/
Basically, their model considers that all the states are much more interconnected than the other models. So if it looks like certain states are close races, then other similar states would likely also be close as well. The model subscribes to the theory that a surprise win in one state would likely mean multiple other states would fall differently than predicted as well.