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Old 10-24-2016, 09:01 AM   #4067
octothorp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon View Post
Trump says polls are phony, while Conway admits they are behind in those same polls, she knows they're not phony.

"Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the Trump . We are going to WIN!"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...34428942622721
One of the many silly things about this is that polls are likely more detrimental to the person in the lead (by causing complacency) than the person trailing.

If I was on Clinton's staff and I had the power to rig polls, I'd make bluish swing states close, and reddish swing states appear to be runaway wins for Trump. The idea is to make sure that your supporters have urgency in the states where high turnout favours you, and that your opponent's supporters might get complacent in states where low turnout might give you an upset or two. I'd also try to put myself slightly behind on the national race.

This is almost exactly the opposite of what's actually happening in the polls, where bluish swing states are looking like runaways for Clinton, reddish swing states are looking like Clinton has an advantage but are still competitive, and more red states are entering play, while Clinton has a massive lead nationally.

EDIT:
That WP write-up on what's going on in that email makes perfect sense... certainly far more than any vast conspiracy.

Last edited by octothorp; 10-24-2016 at 09:11 AM.
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