Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
The SUNY guy is basically of the opinion the polls are wrong, which is of course the only way Nate can be wrong since his model is based off polling. People seem to think Nate is just interjecting his opinion into his model, which he's not outside of how he rates pollsters, which is based on how well the pollsters actually do (so low bias involved there). Nate hasn't had a great cycle, but the primaries were really once in a lifetime type primaries. The general has more or less played out to form even if Trump has been significantly more unhinged than any candidate ever.
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I would argue he would have been better this cycle had he built a model and followed the polls. Primary polling was reasonably accurate in forecasting a trump victory. His problem was he behaved like a pundit.
Outside of the democratic Michigan primary polling has been very good.
The other thing that Nate's model does that other averages don't is focus on the trend lines of polls rather than just the polling numbers to project into the future. So he does have some personal Art baked into the model. It also does some demographic shifts based on adjacent state and national polling to get state averages.
So while he doesn't interject opinion he does take the polling data and process it.