I think my position is this:
Do I think it saves money in a cold climate? No. Much like LEDs, during our ~200 heating days a year, you are just trading heating efficiencies. ie: the LED light bulb uses less electricity, but creates less heat.... So I am not saving on electricity when I am heating the house, I am just trading off between less electrical heat from the old incandescent bulbs and more natural gas heat from my furnace with the LED lights.
Same logic applies to the tankless heaters, in my view - any inefficiencies in the tank systems are just heat to your house - so you're burning more NG at your furnace to supplant the waste heat your tank generated.
Do I think the benefit of endless, instant hot water is worth a few hundred more than a good direct-vent tank-based system? For me and my family - yes.
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