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octothorp · 10-17-2016, 02:59 PM

538 doesn't have much up about the House level, but in the closing weeks this looks to be increasingly important. I think Cook Political has the best analysis on the house races, and they have it right now as
Democrat safe: 177
Democrat likely or lean: 12
Tossup: 18
Republican likely or lean: 27
Republican Safe: 201

http://cookpolitical.com/house
(Most of the website is behind a pay-wall, but one particularly cool part that is not is this map of congressional districts. It links to demographics on each district.)http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings

It's worth noting that these projections probably move pretty slowly with how little polling we get at the district level:
To take over the house, the Dems would need to protect those likely/leans, win nearly all of the toss-ups, and then carve out another dozen or so of the Republican likely/leans.

Something I find interesting is about half of those Republican likely or lean seats, plus a third of the tossups, fall within the Northeast/Great Lakes area, which makes for a very efficient map for the Democrats to attack in terms of media market spending.

10-17-2016, 02:59 PM	#562
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	538 doesn't have much up about the House level, but in the closing weeks this looks to be increasingly important. I think Cook Political has the best analysis on the house races, and they have it right now as Democrat safe: 177 Democrat likely or lean: 12 Tossup: 18 Republican likely or lean: 27 Republican Safe: 201 http://cookpolitical.com/house (Most of the website is behind a pay-wall, but one particularly cool part that is not is this map of congressional districts. It links to demographics on each district.)http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings It's worth noting that these projections probably move pretty slowly with how little polling we get at the district level: To take over the house, the Dems would need to protect those likely/leans, win nearly all of the toss-ups, and then carve out another dozen or so of the Republican likely/leans. Something I find interesting is about half of those Republican likely or lean seats, plus a third of the tossups, fall within the Northeast/Great Lakes area, which makes for a very efficient map for the Democrats to attack in terms of media market spending. Last edited by octothorp; 10-17-2016 at 03:18 PM.