Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
I disagree with that. It's more likely than not that Gaudreau stays level or improves over the next 6 years. Cap inflation is more likely to be >3% than it is to be <3%.
Is there a risk that he regresses, or that the cap level stagnates? Sure. But the former seems unlikely and the latter would be unprecedented.
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What most people are objecting to is the certainty with which you're speaking of Gaudreau in 7+ years. The problem is that there are just too many variables.
The cap has historically grown by 3.31%, the first three years notwithstanding, but we have no idea what it's going to do in the future. How will the Vegas team affect revenue? Will there be additional expansion? What will happen with the Loonie? Will there be another lockout? How will that affect the salary cap?
However, even if we want to disregard all of those questions and assume we're looking at a steady 3.31% cap increase each year, by 2022-23 the salary cap would be at $88.75M. Which sounds pretty good.
But, we still have variables about Gaudreau himself. What's he ceiling? Most of us assume he has room to grow still, but clearly he's not going to improve every year until he retires at the peak of his game at 45. He has a ceiling and he will have a peak year. When are they?
What about injuries? He's always stayed relatively healthy, but could that change? If he gets a serious injury and is forced to sit out for most of a season, how will that impact his development or his game longterm?
I'm not saying any of these are
likely. In fact an increased cap and a healthy better Gaudreau are probably the most
probable outcomes, but there's just too much uncertainty 7 years from now for us to talk about him
definitely being a $9+M player.