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octothorp · 10-04-2016, 12:48 PM

That's a good question and is kinda difficult to read across different pollsters who have different methodologies in selecting between 'undecided likely voters' and unlikely voters. However, for most of the election, declared support for either Clinton or Trump has held at around 80-81% total. But that number has been gradually rising, and in the current 538 aggregate, is at 84% (44% Clinton, 40% Trump), which is the highest it's been. Trump's popular support hasn't dropped significantly since the debate, it's just that Clinton's has risen, presumably due to drawing in undecideds and third-party voters. She's about as high right now as she was at her post convention peak (but Trump isn't as low as he was at that point).
So yeah, it does look like former undecideds are starting to declare for Clinton, but it's not happening at a rapid speed.

(This is kinda grouping third-party and undecided support together which isn't really fair, but there's reason to think that some of those third-party supporters will 'decide' on a major candidate in the last month, as that's what the current movement and movement in past elections looks like.)

10-04-2016, 12:48 PM	#458
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	That's a good question and is kinda difficult to read across different pollsters who have different methodologies in selecting between 'undecided likely voters' and unlikely voters. However, for most of the election, declared support for either Clinton or Trump has held at around 80-81% total. But that number has been gradually rising, and in the current 538 aggregate, is at 84% (44% Clinton, 40% Trump), which is the highest it's been. Trump's popular support hasn't dropped significantly since the debate, it's just that Clinton's has risen, presumably due to drawing in undecideds and third-party voters. She's about as high right now as she was at her post convention peak (but Trump isn't as low as he was at that point). So yeah, it does look like former undecideds are starting to declare for Clinton, but it's not happening at a rapid speed. (This is kinda grouping third-party and undecided support together which isn't really fair, but there's reason to think that some of those third-party supporters will 'decide' on a major candidate in the last month, as that's what the current movement and movement in past elections looks like.) Last edited by octothorp; 10-04-2016 at 12:54 PM.