Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
Yup - Texas is simply just incredibly lucky this year. Based on their run differential, they should have won around 81 games or so (depending on your model), instead they'll win 95+.
The rhetoric that a good bullpen makes your team better in one run games does not really hold up well under statistical analysis. Yes, there is some coloration, but it is fairly weak.
Honestly, I think the Jays are mostly running into poor luck rather than being a "choking" team. That's why I'm hopeful for the playoffs. Luck can swing wildly in short series, so if the Jays make it past the WC, I think they have a legit shot of going all the way. That's just how baseball is - the best team usually doesn't win the World Series, it's the team that gets "hot" (read: more lucky) at the right time.
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My biggest fear though is that right now by the eye test the Jays haven't been getting unlucky the past couple weeks. They are still getting a good amount of guys on base which helps, but anytime there's a chance to score it seems like it's a strikeout or a weak grounder. That could just be all anecdotal, but it doesn't feel like they're hitting rockets right at guys and are prime to break out when those balls start missing gloves.
At the end of the day though, those opportunities to score are still there every game and that's more than half the battle.