Yup - Texas is simply just incredibly lucky this year. Based on their run differential, they should have won around 81 games or so (depending on your model), instead they'll win 95+.
The rhetoric that a good bullpen makes your team better in one run games does not really hold up well under statistical analysis. Yes, there is some coloration, but it is fairly weak.
Honestly, I think the Jays are mostly running into poor luck rather than being a "choking" team. That's why I'm hopeful for the playoffs. Luck can swing wildly in short series, so if the Jays make it past the WC, I think they have a legit shot of going all the way. That's just how baseball is - the best team usually doesn't win the World Series, it's the team that gets "hot" (read: more lucky) at the right time.
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