Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
I think people saying no possible path are underestimating Trumps chances.
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Well of course... any statement that proclaims there is a 0% chance of something is wrong on the face of it. But I don't think the likelihood is 50-50 either. Clinton easily just had the worst two weeks of her campaign and Trump didn't draw even. Sure she could have more bad weeks... but I don't think that's any more likely then Trump having more bad weeks.
Her campaign still has...
A: More money
B: A better ground game
C: Better (albeit of the less bad variety) favorable/unfavorable rating
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
If their is an underlying polling bias of about 2% or greater Trump wins the election.
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And if there isn't any then she wins, if it's polling bias the other way she wins by an Obama 2012 margin. It's silly to fret about the maybe's of a polling bias because you don't know that any exist, that if it exists it's against Trump, and in all likelihood (in the aggregate) it doesn't. I'm as terrified about the prospect of Donald Trump having codes to a nuclear arsenal but now is not the time to freak out. If Trump is ahead in enough states to get 270 electoral college votes in a months time... that's the time to start building your bunker.