Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
Actually, the recidivism rate for molesting children is lower than the overall criminal recidivism rate.
Once a Sex Offender, Always a Sex Offender? Maybe not.
The popular perception of incurable sex criminals may be quite off the mark
Quote:
...The evidence suggests otherwise. Sex crimes researchers R. Karl Hanson and Kelly E. Morton-Bourgon of Public Safety Canada conducted a large-scale meta-analysis (quantitative review) of recidivism rates among adult sex offenders. They found a rate of 14 percent over a period averaging five to six years. Recidivism rates increased over time, reaching 24 percent by 15 years. The figures are clearly out of alignment with the public’s more dire expectations.
Also contrary to media depictions, most offenders do not “specialize” in one type of sex crime. Most are “generalists” who engage in a variety of sex and nonsexual crimes as well. Hanson and Morton-Bourgon found that sex offenders had a total recidivism rate (for both sex crimes and nonsexual violent crimes) of approximately 36 percent over a period of five to six years. Nevertheless, perpetrators of different types of sex crimes exhibit varying rates of repeat offending. The 15-year recidivism rate is 13 percent for incest perpetrators, 24 percent for rapists, and 35 percent for child molesters of boy victims...
- Scientific American
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The overall crime recidivism rate in Canada is roughly 35 per cent for men and 20 per cent for women. |
Okay, but overall recidivism rate is a watered down stat, it includes knocking over a 7-11 for a box of quarters and probably jaywalking.
Saying that recidivism for rapists is at 24% makes a quarter of them repeat offenders and over a third of child molesters are repeat offenders.
I think those stats are alarmingly high, to the point that basically just letting this guy walk seems irresponsible.