[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

In other words, he has been one of the top 2 or 3 rated players of his age every year for the last 6 or more years. The risk that he suddenly won't be a top player is very, very low.

How can you possibly come to that conclusion? That’s not how risk works, previous ratings as a prospect do not imply anything about a certain player before they have fully developed. There are countless examples of guys who were elite players from 15 to 19, and then everybody else caught up to them (usually physically). Ekblad’s development profile fits the mold of a guy who was extremely physically mature in junior, so his dominance at that level really has no bearing on his probability distribution going forward. Dion Phaneuf is a great example

I'm only going to address you thoughts on Ekblad. Was he physically mature in junior? Yes. Is THAT the reason why he was considered an exceptional talent? Hell f'ing no. And there aren't "countless" examples of players given exceptional player status who then had everyone else catch up to them. You're creating a completely false narrative to fit an argument that doesn't make sense.

Oh, and comparing Ekblad to Phaneuf? come on now....

Says who? Ekblad has never reached the level that he has just signed for and has not shown much (if any) progression since his rookie year. I fail to see how he is less risky at that price point.

He hasn't shown any progression since his rookie year? LOL, you can tell that you only watch the Flames play hockey. Ekblad has already become the team's top pairing shutdown defender AND offensive driver. He's an advanced stat dreamboat. Possibly one of the best shot suppression players in the game right now...and he's just 20. I don't know how much more progression you want to see from him.

Sure, there is that possibility. But how likely is it? Its far more likely he continues to do what he’s always done – rack up points while staying healthy. It seems you would like to use Ekblad’s history as being a top player since he was 15 as evidence to his lack of risk, but you seem hesitant to apply the same rhetoric to Gaudreau. Why is that?

Because Ekblad plays a much harder position to learn and did so at an age that guys almost never break into the league. Even if a guy makes it as a defenseman at 18, they often have a lot of up and down problems. Ekblad has been nothing but consistent since entering the NHL at 18. That's why there's very little risk with him. Maturity and consistency go a long way. How were Gaudreau's road splits again?

At the same age, Gaudreau was playing in a lesser league and learning how to adapt his skill set to playing with larger players. It was far from a guarantee that he would get to this level, let alone excel at it. People thought he would get killed playing with men. To his credit, he's learned how to play his game effectively without getting destroyed.

Ekblad has been as sure a bet as you can make since day 1. There was never that sort of certainty with Gaudreau, but we're getting closer to asserting that he is one of the top players in the game. I would argue that Ekblad is probably already a top 10 defenseman in the NHL, but it would probably be debatable as to whether Gaudreau is a top 10 forward.