Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
You can’t simply project an optimistic scenario and pay a player that much. Proper risk management must consider a distribution of possible outcomes.
|
Great post Enoch.
I think everyone is a little obsessed over the idea that he COULD become the next Kane, or Datsyuk (though it's worth noting that he's a full step below where Kane was at the same age, it's a lofty dream to hope he becomes that).
What is more likely? That he becomes the next Cammalleri, Tanguay, or Kessel. Not slouches by any means, but are they guys who you want to commit a huge cap hit to in their prime? Did any of them prove to be worth building around? Their careers were never bad, but never top-billing either.
What's just as likely as becoming a Kane or a Datsyuk? Not even coming close. He could be the next Hemsky, or Semin, or Ribeiro.
One PPG season does not a superstar make. It's not a rare thing to do here and there for a top 6 winger. The danger is paying him for who you want him to become, and not considering who he might end up as.
I'm not saying he can't become a superstar, but at his age the odds of him experiencing huge gains in production aren't high. The elite guys, the generational talents like Ovie and Crosby, were showing up the whole league in season #1, not flirting with a point-per-game and hitting 6th in scoring in season #2.