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Originally Posted by Drak
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I'm curious to know why 'who you think will win' would be an effective indicator. All it's doing, IMO, is taking all the sampling and inaccuracy issues that even good polls have, and adding a level of individual interpretation on top of it... is it because people are in theory answering about who their local/regional community seems likely to vote for, so it's kinda sampling a larger audience than just one person? Is it because the difference between someone's win-expectation and their support percentage forcasts a lack of voter enthusiasm? (ie. a lot of Trump supporters don't believe he'll win and hence won't actually vote?)
I'm not disputing that this may be a predictive indicator, I'm just confused as to why.