Quote:
Originally Posted by wittynickname
NC is an interesting beast, because you have pockets of very well educated, very liberal demographics, especially in the Triangle region (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill). Orange County in NC is pretty heavily populated and is one of the top 10 most educated counties in the entire US. There are plenty of transplants from more liberal Northeastern States, as well as a not-insignificant Latino population.
If the cities in NC get out and vote in large numbers, they could possibly push the state blue despite the red rural areas. Also I feel like the GOP has made a lot of enemies, with the disastrous voter suppression tactics and the transphobic legislation that has been passed there, it could easily motivate more progressive voters to get out there and try to get rid of McCrory before he brings any further embarrassment to the state.
Also if my census checking is correct, Ohio is around 80% white, North Carolina is only 62% white. Ohio has 12 and 3% Black and Latino respectively, whereas North Carolina has 21 and 10%. Demographics are the hill that Trump is going to die on. He's not pulling minority voters. So he might snag Ohio, but he'll have a hard time in more diverse states.
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NC and Ohio numbers make sense. Trump has lost a lot of the southern, white, old school, wealthy republicans in NC. But he's probably stole some support from the white, blue collar democrats in Ohio. It's always been my theory that he's going to move the needle in both directions in a lot of states. In some states the gains and losses probably cancel each other out.
Forecasts that rely too much on past voting patterns probably aren't going to be very reliable this time around.