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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
It's probably just error bars. Just knowing what I know about the way those states run, a +4 in NC and +5 in PA do not line up with a -4 in OH. At least one of those is off. If Clinton wins NC by even a slim margin, the worst case scenario should be an even slimmer loss in OH. This is a weird election, sure, but there is no circumstance where there's an 8 point swing between those two outcomes.
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NC is an interesting beast, because you have pockets of very well educated, very liberal demographics, especially in the Triangle region (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill). Orange County in NC is pretty heavily populated and is one of the top 10 most educated counties in the entire US. There are plenty of transplants from more liberal Northeastern States, as well as a not-insignificant Latino population.
If the cities in NC get out and vote in large numbers, they could possibly push the state blue despite the red rural areas. Also I feel like the GOP has made a lot of enemies, with the disastrous voter suppression tactics and the transphobic legislation that has been passed there, it could easily motivate more progressive voters to get out there and try to get rid of McCrory before he brings any further embarrassment to the state.
Also if my census checking is correct, Ohio is around 80% white, North Carolina is only 62% white. Ohio has 12 and 3% Black and Latino respectively, whereas North Carolina has 21 and 10%. Demographics are the hill that Trump is going to die on. He's not pulling minority voters. So he might snag Ohio, but he'll have a hard time in more diverse states.