Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
It's probably just error bars. Just knowing what I know about the way those states run, a +4 in NC and +5 in PA do not line up with a -4 in OH. At least one of those is off. If Clinton wins NC by even a slim margin, the worst case scenario should be an even slimmer loss in OH. This is a weird election, sure, but there is no circumstance where there's an 8 point swing between those two outcomes.
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Normally I'd agree, but the demographics of Trump supporters do throw that off a bit. That is why Trump is running even or slightly ahead in Maine's third district, which Romney lost by 12 points.
EDIT: I should clarify that I'm not suggesting your explanation that we are seeing sampling error is wrong. That's absolutely possible too.