Quote:
Originally Posted by The Big Chill
I just think that there are a few moments throughout a season where it can be beneficial, and thus it is important that we can execute. I'm not saying give outs away early in a game. However, bottom of the ninth in a tied game seven and I'll take the 6% increase every time. Of course it depends on where we are in the lineup too, but the idea remains the same.
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But that's one of the major rubs with it too. All this talk about percentages and we are assuming all bunts are successful. We have to account for unsuccessful ones too.
The best I could find was a bleacher report article that had sac bunts being successful at a 75% clip. Using the numbers from above, attempting to bunt actually lowers you percentage for runners scoring in an inning:
Successful bunt: 6% increase x 75% = 4.5% EV
Unsuccessful bunt: 20% decrease x 25% = -5.0% EV
Net EV: -0.5%
Bottom line, bunting is bad, and probably worse for the Jays because we are using league average type numbers and surely they are worse than average when it comes to things like bunting.
Okay, enough small ball rage from me - I think what set me off was listening to a caller after the Jays game yesterday that suggested Edwin's approach at the plate late in the game should have been more like Pillar's.
Also, work is no fun right now, and looking up and computing these percentages are fun.