Quote:
Originally Posted by Frequitude
1) Point taken on inflation, but cap growth has slowed to around 2.9% the past couple years. Those years are far more relevant than what happened in the mid 2000s. It is also widely acknowledged that there is no sudden growth coming. So let's give you the benefit of rounding and say 3%.
2) I acknowledge that Gaudreau has produced more points, but disagree strongly that points are the be all and end all. Tarasenko is bigger, stronger and scores more goals. That is worth value. To keep it easy I propose we call it a wash.
So assuming Tarasenko got $6M for RFA and $9M for UFA and factoring in inflation, Gaudreau's Tarasenko equivalents would be:
8x$7.3M
7x$7.1M
6x$6.7M
Do you agree?
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3% is fine on inflation, I was running scenarios that had it stretch anywhere from 2.5% - 5.5%.
I don't necessarily agree that being bigger and stronger add value, or else Benn wouldn't have made so much less than Pat Kane. Also, is their any evidence that suggests goal scoring drives up player value more than points? I agree in the general case that players of identical point production, goal scoring matters. But when a player has significantly outscored the other over their respective careers, I wouldn't call it a wash. One last factor is injury history, where Tarasenko's is pretty extensive compared to Johnny's (concussions especially scare me because it makes the risk of future injury that much worse).
In the end of the day, Gaudreau is probably about 2-10% more valuable than Tarasenko IMO. On a 8 year deal, that puts him anywhere between 7.5M and 8M.