[Senator Clay Davis]

538 is using the same model they did in 2012 when they showed Obama was going to win, and win easily, basically the entire time. I think people are mostly just revolted that Trump has more than a 1% chance in any model, but he's still highly unlikely to win. The fact his ad buy in Michigan lasted only a week (seriously....a 1 week ad buy 2 months out?) shows his campaign is still pretty much a mess. The lack of organization at some point will torch him. And again if we get moderators who do their job in the debates, Trump is going to look bad. If we see Lestor Holt in the tank for Trump then I agree people should be very worried. Until then this is just how the cycle plays out.