Quote:
Originally Posted by JiriHrdina
This is a general problem with almost all predictions made this time of year - I made the same comment about the Forecaster preview.
For some reason the individual player projections are almost always too optimistic.
Young players are all given a bigger boost than they are likely to achieve, rookies are projected to have higher point totals that are likely, and few vets are predicted to suffer huge declines (many are predicted to have bounce backs).
So let's try to do something here that is far more reasonable:
Mark Gio:
Show signs of a minor decline while remaining productive: 16 goals, 35A: 51 points
TJ Brodie
Takes the next step as an elite all around dman, but at the expense of some points:
7 goals, 25A: 32 points
Doug Hamilton
Similar to Brodie, evolves as a better all around dman, but sees some reduction in his offensviev production:
10 goals, 25 assists: 35 points
Jyrki Jokipakka:
Not a lot of offense expected, or received:
3 goals, 10 assists: 13 points
Dennis Wideman
Becomes a part time player. In and of the lineup as the fall off continues
3 goals, 15 assists: 18 points
Deryk Engelland
Is what he is
1 goal, 6 assists: 7 points
7th guy (Wotherspoon and whoever else):
6 goals, 10 assists: 16 points
46 goals total. What was it last year?
Point totals down more overall though. Less offense overall, but a maturation of the blueline when it comes to the overall games from Hamilton and Brodie, coupled with a systems change.
|
I agree with your point that write-ups are usually too optimistic. But if the Flames D doesn't generate as much offence, or close to as the last couple seasons, our offensive depth suddenly plummets team wide.
No one has pointed offence as being one of the teams issues the last couple years and rightfully so. But with both Hamilton and Brodie not cracking 40 pts, suddenly it does become an issue.
Personally I can see Brodie cracking 50 pts if he stays healthy while still maintaining his strong defensive play. Brodie IMO is ready for a real break out season. Gio should come close to 50 if he's healthy and I see Hamilton breaking 40 again.
Obviously the coach will be looking to find the right balance. Cutting down on the GAA is certainly the biggest priority. But as of now the Flames have 4 potential D that could break 40 pts (Wideman included if everything goes right for him). Most team have 1 or 2. I don't see any reason the Flames can't cut down on GAA, while still having a high scoring defensive unit.
Wishful thinking on my part and maybe I'm also being too optimistic. But unlike many teams, the Flames actually have the personnel on the backend to make it happen.