Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Well I am now beginning to be a bit confused by Nate Silver's model.
This morning, a new poll from OH predictive insights shows Clinton narrowly ahead in Arizona:
http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-73630F4BD52B12D8
Slight adjustment for house effect makes this a 1 point Trump lead, in a state Romney carried by double digits, and which hasn't gone for a democrat since forever.
The effect of this poll on the "polls plus" forecast is that Trump's chances of winning have slightly increased. That makes no sense to me: a universe where Clinton is within a hair's breadth of carrying Arizona is a world where she carries Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada easily.
Maybe someone can explain to me how that poll is actually good news for Trump? |
It goes more by trend lines and more heavily by the big pollsters. So if he trend was ever so slightly more Trump compared to before, you'll have a small bump in Trump's direction.