Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Is the Race tightening due to an increase in third party support in safe states. Are Dems/never trump republican voting 3rd party in safe states but Hillary in swing states?
Do we know the traditional bias / margin error of these state polls?
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I think that's plausible, but I don't see it in any polls that we have in 'safe states' either way. Obviously we have a lot less polling of safe states, but when they do come out (places like Texas, New York, Mississippi), there's not much there to suggest significantly higher 3rd party support. No 3rd party support at all in Mississippi, New York has a bit higher for Stein than national average, a bit below national average for Johnson. Texas more or less average.
I think the more plausible explanation isn't third-party support but instead is likely voters: in swing states, a lot of independents feel a strong responsibility to vote against Trump, but in non-swing states, similar voters are going to report an overall lower enthusiasm, resulting in a more Trump-friendly 'likely voter' sample.
For what it's worth, 538 doesn't give Roanoke a great score, a C+. They've got a pretty high average error in their history.