Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
What really matters as we know is state polls, and more bad news there for Trump over the weekend, falling further behind in Ohio, tied in North Carolina and Iowa, and within the margin of error in South Carolina, which is close to disaster territory for the GOP.
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That's actually kind of good news for Trump in NC (he was losing there previously, still might be considering that only the Gravis poll has him narrowly ahead in the last month need more data to demonstrate a shift there). But your point holds true... Trump is losing where he needs to be winning. In one sense that's like 2012, in 2012 National polls showed the race tightening between Obama & Romney but the state polls didn't (Remember Rove talking about how Romney would win Ohio at the same time that the networks were calling it for Obama).
I actually think polls might be overstating Trump's chances if anything. Hispanics/Latinos had the worst turnout among the various ethnic groups in 2012 (48%) and one of the biggest factors in any likely voter screen is whether you voted before. I don't think it's a big leap to suggest that the prospect of a Trump presidency might push that percentage up. It's still a leap and shouldn't be assumed but just a theory of mine.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/